Analysis by Energy Workforce President Tim Tarpley
A little more than a week after the 2024 election, the outlook for the next Congress and Administration is becoming much clearer. Most importantly, it is looking nearly certain that Republicans will maintain control of the House of Representatives giving Republicans control of all three branches of government. As of now, Republicans have won 214 of the 218 seats they need for a majority, with 16 races still uncalled. It will be extremely unlikely that Republicans could not secure four additional seats in that remaining group. Likely, the majority will end up being slightly more than this Congress but still relatively tight. Upon closer examination of the remaining 16 races, it is a good bet that Republicans will likely end up with a 10-11 vote margin. The margin will be very important to leadership elections in the House, as well as how much cushion room the new majority will have to pass legislation.
Also, this week, the Senate majority leader race was held on Wednesday, and Senator John Thune was chosen to succeed Senator McConnel in leading the chamber. Senator Thune is from South Dakota and has served as Senate Republican whip, the No. 2-ranking position in the Senate GOP leadership, since 2019. Further, in his first public statement as the newly elected Senate Majority leader, Thune pledged to restore U.S. energy dominance in the world.
On the Administration front, several cabinet choices have been made by President Trump in the past week that give us insight into the direction of his administration and what it will mean for energy policy. President-elect Trump’s first pick was Susie Wiles to become his Chief of Staff. Wiles is a Florida-based strategist who served as Trump’s campaign manager. She formally worked on Trump’s 2016 campaign and Reagan’s 1980 campaign. Wiles is widely respected in Republican circles and has moved quickly to secure a host of likely appointments for cabinet secretary and “czar” positions in the next administration. The White House Chief of Staff is perhaps the most important pick an incoming President can make and is key to determining the success of the first 90 days.
Most importantly, reports are that President Trump has chosen Senator Marco Rubio to become Secretary of State. As of writing, the campaign has not officially confirmed this pick; however, it has been reported by multiple sources. Senator Rubio is widely regarded as a foreign policy hawk and has advocated strong positions on both China and Iran during his time in the Senate. Shortly before the election, he said that a Trump administration would likely broker a “negotiated settlement” to end the war in Ukraine. Senator Rubio has traditionally been a strong supporter of the production of oil and gas in the United States and has led legislation to strengthen oil and natural gas sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Rubio has also introduced legislation that would block tax credits for electric vehicle batteries produced using Chinese technology. If the Rubio pick is confirmed, he is expected to be able to breeze through Senate confirmation. Since word of this potential pick began leaking, it has received support from nearly all Republicans and even some on the Democratic side.
Also extremely important to our industry is that President-elect Trump has chosen New York Congressman Lee Zeldin to lead the Environmental Protection Agency. Zeldin had been in the New York Congressional delegation until 2022 when he decided not to run for reelection to challenge Governor Hochul; he ultimately was unsuccessful in this challenge. Zeldin is expected to quickly reverse many pending regulatory actions, such as the Clean Power Plan and vehicle emission rules. The Methane rule, the final of which was published this week, could also face some alterations under his watch.
Still outstanding and very relevant for us are the choices for the Energy and Interior Departments. Governor Dan Burgum is rumored to be a heavy favorite for one of them with former Energy Secretary Dan Brouillette also apparently in consideration to lead Energy again should Burgum end up at Interior. We expect these remaining positions to be quickly filled, and President-elect Trump has suggested using the Recess Appointment mechanism to fill positions that are not quickly approved by the Senate. Given the dynamics and makeup of the Senate, we can expect most, if not all, the picks to be secured in short order. We should have clarity as to the remaining picks in the next few days.
Tim Tarpley, Energy Workforce President, analyzes federal policy for the Energy Workforce & Technology Council. Click here to subscribe to the Energy Workforce newsletter, which highlights sector-specific issues, best practices, activities and more.
