Analysis by Energy Workforce President Tim Tarpley
As we move quickly towards the January 20th inauguration of President-elect Donald Trump, several actions are taking place this week that are vitally important to giving us a sense of what we can expect on the energy policy front over the next few years. First, this week, Governor Burgum and Liberty CEO Chris Wright will begin their confirmation process for the Secretary of Interior and Secretary of Energy posts. While no confirmation process is ever “easy,” most analysts expect both nominations to go through the Senate without problems. These two positions may very well be some of the first confirmations to clear. That is very good news for the energy industry as the quicker they clear the process, the faster they will be able to get into the positions and begin to roll back much of the negative actions taken by the prior administration.
The administration has also begun to announce some of the second-tier positions, which will also be incredibly important to our sector. Last week, Trump announced that Katharine MacGregor, Vice President of Environmental Services at NextEra Energy, is deputy secretary of the Interior. Katarine served in the prior Trump administration. President-elect Trump also announced that James Danly would serve as the Deputy Secretary of Energy. Danly served in the first Trump administration as Chairman of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission and is a former U.S. Army Officer.
We are also starting to get some indications of what kinds of policy changes we may see in the first few days of the new administration. Indications are that the President-Elect may begin with a series of executive orders, perhaps over 100, on the first few days in office. These executive orders will vary from repeals of Biden-Administration policies to new initiatives and directives for the agencies. On the energy front, we can expect Trump to order a withdrawal from the 2015 Paris Agreement. We can also expect an Executive order to quickly reverse the LNG “pause” on new permitting for LNG facilities instituted during the Biden Administration in early 2024. In the past few weeks, the current administration released a “study” of LNG exports, which appeared to be politically motivated and was an attempt to dissuade the issuance of new permits. The comment period for this study runs out on February 18th. Whether or not the incoming administration waits until that comment period runs out is not clear, but either way, we can expect a clear reversal of this policy and hopefully even a move to expedite pending permits.
It is also possible that Trump may make an executive order to expedite some energy-related permits administratively. It is possible that Trump could declare a “national emergency” for energy to fast-track permits for new power and infrastructure projects. Natural gas would likely be a big focus, with pipelines and nuclear energy possibly being beneficiaries. We can expect a number of executive orders reversing Biden-era OCS and onshore lease sales and expediting and increasing the frequency of future offerings.
One of the biggest unknowns is what we will see on trade and tariffs. Trump has floated several aggressive new potential tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and other countries unless several concessions are made and trade is balanced with those of other countries. Whether or not these potential tariffs will happen quickly or layered up over time is still an open question. It is also unclear if these actions will rely on existing authorities like Section 301 or some other national security exception that could go into effect faster and avoid triggering clauses of existing trade agreements. We should get some additional details early next week, whichever way this action goes. We can expect a full rundown of impacts in this column and through the EWTC tariff task force call. Should you have interested in joining these calls, please email here.
Tim Tarpley, Energy Workforce President, analyzes federal policy for the Energy Workforce & Technology Council. Click here to subscribe to the Energy Workforce newsletter, which highlights sector-specific issues, best practices, activities and more.
