Analysis by Energy Workforce President Tim Tarpley
As the Government Shutdown enters its fifth week, faint hopes of an end are beginning to take hold. Multiple pressure points have boiled over this week, making a continuation of the drama increasingly unlikely. First, SNAP benefits, of which 1/8 Americans use, have expired, and the Federal Government does not appear to have a workaround to keep the benefits going without at least a partial resumption of government funding. Second, the nation’s airports and Air Traffic Control System appear to be approaching a breaking point. Many ATC controllers have begun calling out sick after not being paid, as have many TSA agents. Lines at Bush Airport and at other airports around the country have sometimes been longer than 3 hours to clear security. Many airports are being forced into rolling ground stops, stranding passengers across the country and around the world. This disruption is having a huge financial and psychological impact on the US public and US businesses, and it does not seem likely to continue much longer.
Secretary Duffy on Tuesday warned that it may become necessary to start closing portions of the US airspace entirely. If this were to become necessary, it would put tremendous pressure on lawmakers to cut a deal. Giving us some signs of hope is that the negotiating position of some Senate Democrats has softened this week. Republicans have passed multiple CR’s to fund the government and have expressed a willingness to negotiate the ACA issue separately after the government reopens. Initially, the Democratic caucus has been holding firm, demanding that any CR include a continuation of ACA subsidies. Still, it appears that a handful may break ranks and supply the eight necessary votes for a new short-term funding measure in exchange for a promise to vote on a separate ACA tax credit bill. If this deal does come through, it could end the stalemate and reopen the government very soon.
What does all this mean for the OFS sector and our priorities this Congress? Well, first, travel disruptions can be expected to continue until a compromise is reached, and permitting and other government functions that have been slowing will continue to slow. However, perhaps the most impactful thing for us is what is not getting done in Congress. There is a small window to get a permitting reform package across the finish line this year (or potentially very early next year), and the longer this continues, the fewer legislative days we will have to get it done. The SPEED Act is scheduled to be marked up by the House Natural Resources Committee as soon as the deal is struck and the House fully opens. This will likely be the vehicle for permitting reform. The shortened timeline will mean hearings and markups must be conducted at breakneck speed, and it will be imperative that EWTC and our companies closely follow developments and negotiations, as things could move very quickly. Given the continued growth in power demand projections for the coming years, it will be vital to try to get a package across the finish line before legislative activity slows down next year in anticipation of the midterm elections.
Tim Tarpley, Energy Workforce President, analyzes federal policy for the Energy Workforce & Technology Council. Click here to subscribe to the Energy Workforce newsletter, which highlights sector-specific issues, best practices, activities and more.
