Analysis by Energy Workforce President Tim Tarpley
As the current government shutdown enters week 3, there appears to be no clear end in sight. Both sides are dug in, with Republicans refusing to negotiate beyond a short-term CR, which maintains funding at current levels, and Democrats are demanding to negotiate in some sort of fix to Obamacare healthcare subsidies that are set to expire at the end of November. There does not appear to be real back-and-forth multi-party negotiations even going on at this point. The Administration is also considering workarounds to pay the military who are scheduled to be paid this week, which could take some pressure off of negotiations, as well as further elongating the impasse.
The pain points are really just starting this week, with Federal Government employees, the majority of whom are paid on a bimonthly basis, will miss their first paycheck tomorrow. Some are starting to call out sick due to childcare and other constraints, and we are starting to see some impacts on TSA and Air Traffic Controllers. These impacts could begin to grow moving forward. As for BSEE, BOEM, OSHA and other agencies critical to energy operations in the US and offshore, most industry-facing employees have been deemed essential, so impacts so far have been minimal. BSEE, for example, has stated that it plans to retain about 67% of its workers throughout the shutdown in order to ensure “crucial permitting and oversight activities.” However, given past shutdowns, as the clock keeps moving forward, impacts begin to show. The longer we move past the 2-week mark, the more financial strain is put on the workforce and the more likely we are to see additional impacts.
We have seen some reduction of force notices go out to some of the relevant agencies that we work with, but so far, the impacts appear minimal. Some 200 DOE employees received “reduction in force” notices last week, as well as five offices receiving general notices, but not specific, so the impacts there are hard to gauge at this point.
Perhaps the most impactful thing for us now is what is not getting done in Congress. We are now in the 2nd week, where the House has not even been in session. That means that no negotiations are going on, permitting reform or potential tariff relief. In regard to permitting reform, there is a relatively short window between now and the end of the year to truly get something bipartisan done, and that window is now rapidly closing. Should any true bipartisan deals be made in the coming weeks they are going to be related to ending the shutdown or Obamacare not permitting reform. Hopefully, if a deal on ending the shutdown can be reached sooner then later regular order can return to the House and Senate and work on permitting reform can begin again.
Tim Tarpley, Energy Workforce President, analyzes federal policy for the Energy Workforce & Technology Council. Click here to subscribe to the Energy Workforce newsletter, which highlights sector-specific issues, best practices, activities and more.
