Analysis by Energy Workforce President Tim Tarpley
As the dust begins to settle on the 2024 election, we are starting to get a clearer view of what next year will look like and what it will mean for the energy services sector. First, and perhaps most important in terms of policy, is the House. As of this week, the final House results show Republicans holding 220 seats and Democrats holding 214 seats. However, one house race remains (CA-13) in which the Democrat is currently leading by 143 votes-with nearly all votes counted. It appears that this seat will go Democrat. Additionally, Matt Gaetz resigned after he was nominated to become Attorney General. Three other House members have been tapped for administrative jobs. There is a period of time until the states can hold special elections, during which the Republicans may only hold a one- or two-vote margin in the House. This is significant because it limits what can be done, as there is no margin for error. Still, more importantly for us, it creates a quick incentive to pass legislation as soon as possible if and when there is a substantial margin in the House.
The Senate is a much cleaner result, with 53 Republicans and 47 Democrats giving the GOP a healthy majority. However, they are seven votes shy of a supermajority necessary to pass legislation without the need for bipartisan support in most circumstances. What does this all mean for us? It means that while Republicans have a clear majority, they may not have enough votes to accomplish everything we want to see right away. Certainly, permitting reform will have a strong chance of passing quickly, given that it enjoys bipartisan support. While there may be efforts to repeal the full IRA, this appears unlikely at this point, it appears more likely that we may see some alterations or changes but not a full repeal. The methane fee will likely be repealed in these early actions next year. We could also see some actions to use the Congressional Review Act to repeal some regulatory actions regarding the methane rule, but it is unlikely to see a complete reversal.
On the administrative side, we have seen quite a lot of action on tariffs by President-elect Trump so far. He announced that he intended to levy a 25% tariff on all goods coming from Canada and Mexico on January 20th, and imports from China would face a 10% tariff “above any additional tariffs” that are already levied. Prime Minister Trudeau has already traveled to Mar-A-Lago to discuss this proposal with Trump, but no clear deal has appeared. President-elect Trump has also threatened to apply a 100% tariff on BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran and UAE) should these countries move forward with any effort to launch a reserve currency other than the US dollar. Given that the details of these proposals are still in development, and it is unclear if they will ultimately be implemented, the impacts on our sector are still entirely speculative but could be significant. To keep up with the rapidly developing situation over the next few weeks and months, EWTC will be forming a tariff task force to follow and react to the developments going forward. Please email me if you have any employees who would like to join this task force.
Tim Tarpley, Energy Workforce President, analyzes federal policy for the Energy Workforce & Technology Council. Click here to subscribe to the Energy Workforce newsletter, which highlights sector-specific issues, best practices, activities and more.
